Welcome to the biggest week for college football. A lot of discussion has surrounded year three of the College Football Playoff – especially in a time where NFL ratings are a hot topic.
Last year, the New Year’s Six – including the semifinals in the Orange and Cotton Bowls – averaged a 7.1 overnight rating. That number was down from an 8.2 average during year one of the CFP.
New Year’s Eve game times for semifinals games were said to be a factor – but what truly made an impact may have been the average margin of victory of the New Year’s Six games (24.2 points).
Looking at this year’s ratings, our Director of Media Services, Scott Kohler, made some bold over/under predictions for this year based on last year’s ratings and this year’s matchups.
Here are his (reluctant) predictions for this year’s New Year’s Six bowls:
Fiesta Bowl
Clemson vs. Ohio State – 7:00 pm ET on 12/31
O/U Prediction: 10.1 rating
Scott’s Take: Over – There’s controversy surrounding Ohio not even making B10 champ game but still being chosen for the CFP, and if they truly are worthy, people will tune in to root against them. Only potential downfall is it’s late on NYE.
Peach Bowl
Alabama vs. Washington – 3:00 pm ET on 12/31
O/U Prediction: 9.1 rating
Scott’s Take: Under – I think most people assume Alabama is the clear #1 and will roll through Washington, and won’t tune in. Plus, I don’t think Washington is that big of a national draw.
Orange Bowl
Florida State vs. Michigan – 8:00 pm ET on 12/30
O/U Prediction: 7.7 rating
Scott’s Take: Over – It’s a Friday night, primetime draw, and both schools have large national fan base.
Rose Bowl
USC vs. Penn State – 5:00 pm ET on 1/2
O/U Prediction: 7.5 rating
Scott’s Take: Over – The Big Ten’s focus may be on Ohio State, but the Rose Bowl will benefit from a great timeslot on a day nearly everyone will be sitting at home.
Sugar Bowl
Auburn vs. Oklahoma – 8:30 pm ET on 1/2
O/U Prediction: 6.1 rating
Scott’s Take: Under – It will be hard for the third game of the day to finish out strong.
Cotton Bowl
Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin – 1:00 pm ET on 1/2
OUR OVER/UNDER PREDICTION: 4.1
SCOTT’S TAKE: Over – There is some intrigue in seeing a non-power conference team try to go undefeated. It’s a Boise State kind-of feel.